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3.2 percent growth in 2025, accelerating to 4.5 percent in 2026. Sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth projected to rise from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, reflecting a shift towards more positive total conditions.
Predicting the 2026 Middle East Corporate Environment
The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) projects international development reducing to 3.1 percent in 2026, with innovative economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and developing economies simply above 4 percent. On that contrast, a 4.44.5 percent GCC expansion would put the region materially ahead of the world average and somewhat above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, reinforcing the GCC's status as a relatively high-growth pocketprovided that regional risk conditions remain included and reform momentum holds.
Data from the GCC Statistical Center show that non-oil sectors already represent more than 73 percent of total GDP, a share that has actually continued to rise as federal governments expand investment in services, infrastructure, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is predicted to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, enhancing credit conditions, and increasing financial investment in innovation and AI-related infrastructure.

Public-sector financial investment and reform stay central to sustaining this trend. Policy procedures focused on bring in foreign direct financial investment, relieving foreign ownership guidelines, broadening capital markets, and supporting private-sector involvement continue to underpin non-oil growth and decrease the region's exposure to oil rate volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the growth outlook, oil earnings are anticipated to play a helpful function in 2026.
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